Former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi has cast doubt on Raila Odinga’s chances of securing the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship, suggesting the former Prime Minister’s campaign is unlikely to succeed.
Kituyi criticised Raila’s campaign strategy, claiming it is insufficient to win the crucial vote.
Bankrolled by the Kenyan government, Raila has been traveling across Africa to garner support from various heads of state.
However, he needs either a consensus or a two-thirds majority vote from the 55 AU member states at the upcoming election next month.
In his assessment of the race, Kituyi pointed to the strength of the Francophone bloc, suggesting it could work against Raila’s candidacy.
He argued that the Djibouti candidate, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, is well-positioned to leverage the support of French-speaking and Islamic countries to secure the seat.
Raila faces competition not only from Youssouf but also from Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.
Kituyi expressed doubt about Raila’s continent-wide efforts, stating that the strategy appears to lack the depth needed to win the February vote.
Kituyi, drawing from his extensive experience in international diplomacy, emphasized that the Francophone bloc tends to vote as a unified group on issues of regional importance.
“I have worked at the highest levels of diplomacy, and one thing I know for sure is that Francophone Africa will always vote as a bloc on African matters,” he said.
He further explained the challenge for Raila, noting that French-speaking and Islamic countries typically rally behind one of their own.
“If you have two candidates—one from a Francophone country and one from elsewhere—the Francophone candidate starts with 29 votes. Add to that the support from Islamic countries and a statement from SADC backing Djibouti, where exactly does Raila begin his campaign?” Kituyi questioned.
